Bad Beat Poker Jackpot Odds

Probabilities of the Major Hand Requirements

* To beat Four of a kind 6’s or Higher: 0.0000093 or 1 in 107,527

* To beat Four of a kind 7’s or Higher: 0.0000078 or 1 in 128,205

* To beat Four of a kind 8’s or Higher: 0.0000064 or 1 in 156,250

Bad Beat Jackpot Odds

Most players play the bad beat jackpot for the “chance” to win a bad beat jackpot. However, many players do not think about the “odds” of winning the jackpot. There are few things to understand about the bad beat jackpot odds.

Hand Requirement is Main Odds Factor

The first thing to understand is that odds of winning a jackpot are tied directly to the requirements in order to qualify for the bad beat. Many may think that your odds are worse to hit a bad beat jackpot online because there are more players and thus more competition to hit. However, having more players does not reduce your chances of winning the bad beat, in the same way that less players does not increase your chances to win.

The most important factor of a bad beat jackpot is the hand requirements. The higher a hand that is required to be beaten, the lower the chances are of hitting the jackpot. There other requirement factors that play into the odds as well. However, all of the sites that we review on this site have fairly uniform requirements. So, the main difference is just the hand requirements.

The Odds are the Same for Each Trial

The second thing to understand is that the odds indicate the probability of the bad beat jackpot hitting at any given time. If the probabilities hold true, the jackpot will hit for the quad 8’s requirement every 156,250 hands. HOWEVER, that does not mean that every hand past the 156,250th hand, the jackpot is then due and therefore there are higher odds for it to hit. Each hand is a trial, and each trial is independent. The odds do not change from one trial to the next. They simply indicate what the overall trend should be. The more trials that are taken, the more the trend will hold true.

If that went over your head, just understand that EACH time a hand is dealt; there is a 1 and 156,250 chance that a bad beat will occur on that table (for Quad 8’s requirement) and that probability never changes from hand to hand.  Or, think about this. When flipping a coin, there is a 50/50 chance of landing on one side or the other. If you flip a coin 100 times in a row and it shows heads every time, that does not mean there is a greater chance of showing tails on the next flip. It is always 50/50 for each flip (trial).

Other Chances to Win

The third thing to understand is the chance of actually hitting the jackpot is not very high. In other words, it is not very probable that you will hit a bad beat jackpot. There are other things however that slightly increases your chance of winning at least part of the jackpot. Most poker rooms offer a portion of pot to be split among those seated at the table that the jackpot is hit. Absolutepoker.com (no longer in operation) actually goes a step further and splits the jackpot with any players seated at jackpot table with the same game type and stakes at which the actual jackpot is hit. In addition, they offer a $1,000 bonus to every other player seated at the actual jackpot table.

Why Play Bad Beat Jackpots

Many people will look at the odds of hitting any given bad beat jackpot and conclude that is it not worth playing because it is like a lottery. While the odds are not great, there are some other factors to consider on whether to play for a bad beat jackpot. Bad beat jackpots tend to bring out the big fish in poker, even in otherwise tight poker rooms. This is simply because many bad beat players tend to play poker with the same mentality of the bad beat jackpot; it is all based on luck. Therefore, these players begin to make unsound poker decisions, such as routinely calling large bets with cards that “might” be a bad beat jackpot hand. If you are an advanced player, you have the experience and knowledge to take advantage of this kind of play. Soft competition is worth every bit of the bad beat rake that you will contribute. Plus, the added chance that you could also randomly hit the ‘lotto’, is not a bad deal either.

Source: Probabilities in this article are from wizardofodds.com